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Polya's Urn Problem: Expected Balls in the Smaller Urn

Puzzle: There are two urns with one ball each. Each of subsequent n-2 balls is placed into one of these urns, with probability proportional to the number of balls already in that urn. What is the expected number of balls in the smaller sized urn? Source: P. Winkler's Puzzles book. (Chapter: Probability). Solution: Highlight the part between the * symbols for the answer. * This problem can be reformulated as the following problem. Suppose I have a stack of black cards and one red card. Initially I take red card in my hand. Now I add black cards randomly between any two cards (so, initially its either above or below red). Note that the probability that I add the card above the red card, when x-1 is the number of cards above red and y-1 is the number of cards below red is x/(x+y). Let the problem be if red card is dividing the black cards into two sets, what is the expected number of black cards in the smaller section. So, we see that the two problems are equivalent. No...
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Lion and Man in a Circular Cage: Can the Lion Catch the Tamer?

Source: Asked to me by Pramod Ganapathi (PhD Student at Stony Brook University) Problem: A lion and a lion tamer are enclosed within a circular cage. If they move at the same speed but are both restricted by the cage, can the lion catch the lion tamer? (Represent the cage by a circle, and the lion and lion tamer as two point masses within it.) Solution: Highlight the part between the * symbols for the answer. * Answer: surprisingly, no - the tamer can avoid being caught forever. This is the famous Lion and Man problem, posed in the 1930s and settled by Besicovitch; the proof appears in Littlewood's "A Mathematician's Miscellany" (and opens Bollobas's "The Art of Mathematics"). What the lion CAN do (Rado's strategy): move to the center, then always stay on the radius through the tamer, using any spare speed to move outward. Since the lion runs on a smaller circle, it can match the tamer's angular position while steadily increasing its radiu...
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Expected Tosses for Consecutive Heads: 2 Heads vs 3 Heads Puzzle

Let's say A keep tossing a fair coin, until he get 2 consecutive heads, define X to be the number of tosses for this process; B keep tossing another fair coin, until he get 3 consecutive heads, define Y to be the number of the tosses for this process. 1) Calculate P{X>Y} 2) What's the expected value of X 3) What's the expected value of Y This is probably the hardest puzzle I have ever put on my blog. Hence, I will post its solution in the post directly rather than on comment. Solution: 1) (Solved by me finally after 13 months :)) Make a state diagram. Let the state be (a,b) where a is the number of consecutive heads streak "A" is on currently and b is the number of consecutive heads streak "B" is on currently. So, (0,3) (1,3) are final accepted states and (2,0) (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) are failure states. If you get tails, your contribution to the state reaches to "0" f(State) = P(X>Y | "State" configuration initially) ...
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